A Mathematical Model for COVID-19 in Italy with Possible Control Strategies

Italy faced the COVID-19 crisis in early stages of pandemic. In present study, a SEIR compartment mathematical model has been proposed. The considers four infection: susceptible(S), exposed (E), infected (I) and recovered (R). Basic reproduction number $$R_0$$ which estimates transmission potential disease calculated by next-generation matrix technique. We have estimated parameters using real data for Coronavirus transmission. To get dipper insight into dynamics, we also studied most pandemic affected regions Italy. stood differently different i.e. Lombardia (2.1382), Veneto (1.7512), Emilia Romagna (1.6331), Piemonte (1.9099) at 2.0683. sensitivity corresponding to various demonstrated via numerical simulations. Besides, it with help simulations that earlier lockdown rapid isolation infective individuals would helpful dual way; substantially reducing susceptible people on one hand preponing end other. This paper includes complete theoretical analysis proposed including epidemic feasibility existence endemic equilibrium point. derived conditions under became endemic. Since an point refers possibility backward bifurcation, given detailed regarding same. All is supported understand dynamics While analyzing was found hardest hit had highest infectives. forecasted future scenario predicts shall die out from worst region approximately November 2020.